Reds wrap up set in Milwaukee

Baseball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After breaking out of an offensive slump last night, the Cincinnati Reds hope to be swinging hot bats for a second straight day when the National League Central co-leaders conclude a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon at Miller Park.

The Reds followed up a shutout loss at Houston on Sunday with a 3-2 setback to the Brewers the following night, but the NL's most productive offense was able to return to its season-long form in Tuesday's second test of this three-game set. Cincinnati racked up 19 hits and knocked out Milwaukee ace Yovani Gallardo in the third inning en route to a 12-4 rout.

Scott Rolen led the Reds' outburst by going 4-for-4 with three RBI. Fellow NL All-Stars Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto also collected four hits each in the win, with Phillips knocking in a pair of runs, while Ramon Hernandez doubled twice and finished with three RBI on the night.

Most of the damage took place against Gallardo (9-5), who was rocked for six runs (five earned) and 10 hits before being removed after just 2 2/3 innings.

"You can never predict what's going to happen in this game," said Rolen. "We swung the bats well and kind of put the pressure on them. It feels good to even up the series and hopefully we can take it [Wednesday]."

With the Brewers trailing big late, manager Ken Macha decided to have position player Joe Inglett pitch the ninth inning, with the utilityman retiring the side in order.

"It's really the first time I've ever used the position player to pitch," Macha said. "It was interesting. He was throwing 51 (mph) and got them out. When you're starter doesn't get three innings in, that's what happens."

The Reds didn't get much out of their starter either, with Edinson Volquez lasting only 3 2/3 frames and allowing four runs on six hits while issuing four walks. Logan Ondrusek (2-0) then took over and delivered 2 1/3 hitless innings to nail down the win.

Gallardo made more of an impact at the plate, belting a two-run homer off Volquez in the second inning. Rickie Weeks added a solo shot and ended 2-for-4 with two runs scored for Milwaukee, which had a season high-tying five-game win streak halted.

Seeking to get the Brewers back on track will be Chris Narveson, a surprise eight-game winner for the team who's done a serviceable job since being placed in the rotation in late April. The journeyman lefty hasn't had a good July, however, as he's allowed 21 runs (20 innings) over 20 1/3 innings and posted a 1-2 record in four starts this month.

Narveson was sharp in his first outing after the All-Star break, holding NL East-leading Atlanta to two runs in six innings to help Milwaukee to a 6-3 win on July 17. He didn't perform as well in last Friday's matchup with Washington, however, as the visiting Nationals reached him for five runs in a six-inning no-decision.

The 28-year-old gave up two home runs in that start and has surrendered 16 in only 98 2/3 innings of work this season. The Reds, by the way, are ranked second in the NL with 119 homers, a number surpassed only by the Brewers, in addition to topping the Senior Circuit with 496 runs scored.

This will be Narveson's first-ever start against Cincinnati, but he's yielded just one run in a combined four innings in two previous encounters with the Reds in relief.

For Cincinnati, hard-luck rookie Travis Wood takes another stab at an elusive initial victory in the majors when he takes on the Brewers for the first time tonight. The young lefty has made five starts since being promoted from the minors on July 1, but has yet to win despite limiting the opposition to two runs or fewer in three of those games.

Wood wasn't particularly good in his most recent assignment, a six-inning no- decision at Houston on Friday in which he was tagged for four runs on nine hits, but pitched extremely well with nothing to show for it in his two prior starts. He took a perfect game into the ninth inning and finished with nine frames of one-hit, shutout ball at Philadelphia on July 10, then followed up by permitting just one run and three hits through six innings of a loss to Colorado on July 18. The Reds did not score at all in either of the two tilts.

Cincinnati moved into a virtual first-place tie with St. Louis, which lost to the New York Mets on Tuesday, in the NL Central standings and will attempt to maintain its recent mastery of Milwaukee. The Reds have taken seven of the past eight meetings between the clubs and swept a two-game series from the Brewers in Cincinnati from May 17-18.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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