Capuano leads Brewers into second test with Pirates

Baseball Betting Lines

08/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former staff ace Chris Capuano makes his third start of the season tonight, when the Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the middle game of three over the weekend at Miller Park.

Alcides Escobar's two-run triple sparked a six-run seventh inning on Friday as the Brewers took a 7-2 win.

Ryan Braun and Corey Hart each drove in two runs, while Jonathan Lucroy scored twice and drove in one for the Brewers, who snapped a four-game slide.

Chris Narveson (10-7) worked seven innings and was charged with two runs on seven hits with a walk and eight strikeouts to get the win.

Chris Snyder hit a solo home run and Ronny Cedeno drove in the other run for the Pirates, who had won three of four coming in.

James McDonald (2-4) was charged with six runs on seven hits with two walks and seven strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings in the loss.

Meanwhile, Capuano was an 18-game winner for Milwaukee in 2005 and followed that campaign with 11 wins a year later before skidding to just five wins in 2007. He did not make a single big-league appearance in 2008-09.

He returned to the Brewers with a June 3 start at Florida and dropped a 3-2 decision and has since made one start and 15 trips in from the bullpen, compiling an overall 3.72 earned run average in 29 innings.

The 6-foot-2, 224-pounder has not been scored upon in his last three relief outings, allowing no hits and striking out seven batters over 5 2/3 innings against Colorado, San Diego and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

He faced the Pirates three times in July and was 1-0, while surrendering four hits and a run in 6 1/3 innings.

For Pittsburgh, Zach Duke aims for a second straight win for the third time this season.

The 27-year-old won two straight games from April 5 and 10, then repeated the feat on July 21 and 27, including a 15-3 rout of the Brewers.

He was a winner over the New York Mets in his most recent start on Aug. 22, allowing five hits and a run in seven innings.

Duke is 4-7 in 16 career meetings with Milwaukee with a 6.10 ERA.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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